And Now What, Europe?
15 points on Europe's Struggle for Sovereignty, Democracy, and Survival in a World of Geopolitical and Ecological Upheaval
And Now What, Europe?
For long periods, nothing happens, and suddenly, everything seems to change abruptly. In the 1970s, palaeontologists Stephen Gould and Niles Eldredge based their evolutionary theory on this very idea, arguing that evolution does not proceed in a continuous and gradual manner but rather that an equilibrium that appears stable is suddenly interrupted, triggering a radical change. Our own species, they argued, is the result of one of those moments where tranquillity is disrupted by a great upheaval. To express something similar, but this time in the political realm, people often refer to an expression popularised by the poet Mario Benedetti: "When we had all the answers, suddenly they changed the questions."
This is probably happening again, even though we are not yet fully prepared to accept it. After all, our way of processing information—of thinking—seems to function under the principle of energy optimisation, meaning that we tend to prefer the answers we are familiar with rather than considering whether we need to rethink everything. But we are in one of those moments when confusion is so widespread that it becomes evident that something is wrong with the answers we used to give to old questions.
Donald Trump is turning the world upside down. However, unlike Eduardo Galeano, who did so metaphorically to expose the dominant inequality and injustice everywhere, the President of the United States is redesigning the world for the benefit of a very specific political project. And to do so, he has no qualms about blowing up all the norms and customs to which the developed world had grown accustomed. Trump has kicked over the chessboard, and his allies and adversaries remain frozen at the table.
With this scenario in mind, let's try to clarify some ideas organized into fifteen points:
1. The Context
We live on a planet with limited resources, and the Baconian drive to subdue and dominate nature has led our industrial societies to become deeply dependent on materials and energy sources that are unevenly distributed across the world—a whim of geology. To make matters worse, the use of fossil fuels causes global warming, which alters living conditions everywhere while, among other consequences, intensifying migratory pressures toward developed countries.
2. The Process
For over two hundred years, the conventional narrative about the growth and development of human societies has maintained that the path to progress is defined by the ability to industrialise—that is, to replace workers with high-power machines driven by fossil fuels, which increase labour productivity. By achieving this, societies become wealthier (especially in per capita terms), and their workers can enjoy higher wages and better services provided by stronger states. Western Europe and the United States followed this path first; then, at breakneck speed, the USSR; and more recently, also at a rapid pace, Asian countries, most notably China since the 1980s.
3. The Conflict
The context and the process described above are not compatible, and even less so on a global scale. Since the 1970s, it has been widely recognised that the impact on the planet—the "ecological footprint"—of the American Way of Life is unsustainable. In its most generous interpretation, this means that it is impossible to extend that lifestyle to the nearly 10 billion people projected to inhabit the planet by 2050.
4. Liberalism’s Blind Spot
For some strange reason, European liberalism—politically embodied in the various democratic-conservative and social-democratic currents—has paid little attention to these issues. Its economic perspectives remain trapped in the old framework of international trade and its mantras—the kingdom of Ricardian comparative advantage—while simultaneously upholding democratic values and principles inherited from the antifascist founding moment of a Europe determined not to repeat the Nazi experience. However, the pressure of emerging tensions—migration, inflation, war—is driving the far-right forward, and part of liberalism is defecting in favour of reactionary discourses.
5. The Place of Each in the World-Economy
Wallerstein argued that the international division of labour became effective in the 16th century when the first imperialism established global economic relations. Back then, goods like spices, potatoes, silver, and cotton were traded. Today, the world is much more complex but follows the same logic. Some countries specialise in low-tech sectors, such as providing cheap labour, while others focus on high-tech industries, like the software embedded in electronic products. In this world-economy, global value chains exemplify how a given product is composed of parts sourced from twenty different countries, each competing to find the most profitable way to integrate into the international division of labour.
6. Those in Power
Economy and weaponry have always been linked. Today, the popular term for Trump’s economic policy is the “weaponization of trade,” as he uses commerce as a strategic tool. The logic is clear: if you don’t do what I want… I impose tariffs. The U.S. does this because it can. In less than two months, Colombia, Mexico, and even Canada have already yielded. But the U.S. can do this because it remains the world’s strongest economy.
7. Those who used to be in Power
In the year 2000, the two major economic powers dominating global value chains in their most technological—and most profitable—segments were the United States and Germany. Twenty years later, the top two are the United States and China. China's rise, along with that of other Asian countries, has come at the expense of the United States and an even sharper decline for Germany and its European partners. China exports 33% of the value of products considered critical for commercial reasons—that is, products that only a few countries manufacture but that almost everyone wants. Most of these are related to electronic equipment, such as mobile phones and semiconductors.
8. The Trade War
The United States launched a trade war against China in 2018, imposing new trade barriers and making Chinese imports more expensive in the U.S. market. China responded with similar retaliatory measures. Their relationship is a mix of love and hate, as the U.S. trade deficit with China is counterbalanced by China's financing of U.S. public debt. The new and expanded trade war is not just a whim of Trump; as Yanis Varoufakis has pointed out, it is a violent, risky, yet coherent economic strategy aimed at regaining the power lost over recent decades.
9. It’s About Resources!
For decades, China has been expanding globally to secure access to key materials and energy sources for the future, which directly impacts the ecological transition. Major energy converters, such as photovoltaic panels and wind turbines, require significant amounts of these materials. As journalist Olga Rodríguez has brilliantly explained, Biden’s visit to Angola before leaving the presidency was the first and belated U.S. attempt to engage with a continent where China holds a significant advantage. A clear example is rare earth extraction—China controls around 60% of the world's supply, while the U.S. holds only about 10%.
10. Ukraine
A few days before his infamous call to Putin, Trump told Ukraine it had to pay for military aid with rare earth resources. Many were outraged, likely because they were still thinking in terms of old frameworks, in which helping Ukraine was primarily a moral obligation. But Trump does not adhere to those norms or follow the World Trade Organization’s approach to international relations. His is a cruder, more ruthless form of economic imperialism that he is willing to back up with force. We already discussed a similar case regarding Greenland.
11. Russia
The country ruled with an iron fist by Putin is not a major economic player, but beyond its nuclear arsenal, it is one of those territories blessed by geology for modern times. Russia holds the world’s largest natural gas reserves—around 20%—and currently exports nearly 8% of the global total. Europe was critically dependent on Russian oil and gas imports, and after the invasion of Ukraine, it had to increase its reliance on U.S. natural gas. This was a massive business opportunity for the U.S., as its natural gas exports have increased by 624% since 2000, and the price of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker has surged from $60 million to $275 million.
12. The Question of Democracy
The democratic ideal is fading. The world's leading powers are China, a one-party dictatorship, and the United States, a declining democracy with oligarchic tendencies. The energy supply that industrial societies depend on comes from countries like Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates. In this context, realpolitik dominates, and the form of government of international players seems increasingly irrelevant. The democratic question arises only in selective, rhetorical ways, as in the case of Venezuela, and almost always for local political reasons.
13. Europe
The European Union—and, if included, the United Kingdom—finds itself at a critical crossroads. None of its members rank among the leading economic powers, perhaps with the exception of Germany, which squandered its late-20th-century technological edge by embracing neoliberalism. This also worsened internal EU problems by widening the economic gap with the South. Germany invested more effort in looking eastward, attracted by the cheap and skilled labour of former Soviet bloc countries, rather than in strengthening a unified European project. To make matters worse, Europe lacks political unity, Trump-aligned far-right movements are gaining electoral and cultural ground, and some countries, like Hungary, openly express a preference for aligning with Trump and Putin rather than staying in the EU. Additionally, a confused left-wing faction mistakes monetary sovereignty for anti-European sentiment.
14. The Alternative
Britain was fortunate to have abundant coal reserves, enabling the Industrial Revolution. Coal also played a central role in the historical conflicts between France and Germany. However, the EU lacks natural gas and oil, which are the primary contemporary energy sources. Perhaps this is why its policymakers have traditionally leaned toward free-market ideology. As it is often framed, the dilemma is choosing between dependence on Russia (oil and gas) or the United States (LNG). However, there is another path: building independence through an ecological transition. Renewable energy comes with challenges, but it is essential for both mitigating climate change and achieving strategic autonomy from Russia and the United States.
15. A Stimulus Plan
A 100% renewable economy cannot be achieved through market mechanisms alone—it requires planning. Even the liberal economist Mario Draghi acknowledged this in his report to the European Commission. Economic heterodoxy has gained ground in Europe over the past decade and will likely expand further. The post-pandemic recovery fund should serve as a model—improved and expanded. The goal is to design and finance an ecological transition that ensures European societies a decent future. Even food security is at risk without energy security, making this a matter of domestic politics, not just foreign policy. This is also an opportunity to reconsider the role of the European Central Bank. Why not? These are times of urgency and innovation. In fact, there may be no other choice if Europe wants to maintain independence from U.S. and Russian imperial ambitions. It might be the only way to safeguard democracy in these times.
Ultimately, Europe stands at a historic crossroads. The climate crisis, geopolitical reconfiguration, and the decline of the old liberal order are not isolated phenomena; they are interwoven elements shaping the future for this and future generations. Continuing to rely on the inertia of the past—fossil fuel dependence, free-market dogma, and political fragmentation—means condemning itself to strategic irrelevance and democratic erosion. The only real alternative is a planned ecological transition that reduces dependence on the U.S. and Russia and rebuilds sovereignty based on social and energy justice. This is not just a matter of economic independence; it is Europe’s last chance to have a voice in the 21st century.